Once again, a post about nothing.
I'm working through a corporate acquisition for one of my companies. The acquired (if it occurs) is a near bankrupt local company. Looking through their financial statements is a bit like conducting a post-mortem examination. Instead of using tools to determine future cash flows and valuation, which one would use for a healthy company, I'm more digging through the wreckage looking for assets that can be salvaged, customers that might stay, and avoiding liabilities transferring with the company. Yech!
Around here, a sign of the times. A lot of small business failures and a general feeling that it is not getting better, but worse. Statistics seem to bear that out.
Anyone up for a beer?
11 comments:
As you said in your title.... BORING
Get with the program Einfahrt and post about bier, pork products, Barley Man's new dress, etc.
Well, actually:
1) I started the post stating it was a post about nothing.
2) I did reference bier - as in I'm ready for one (or more).
3) I did talk about pork, as in the failure of.
4) David's new dress is quite nice!
IT'S A ROYAL CAPE
And I'd like a beer, but I just got to work.
And yes, John, would like to get your fervid mind working on new ideas on the trip!
Actually, leading indicators seemed to have bottomed out and are trending up. Too early to tell. Trailing indications (like employment) still suck.
Tech is seeing more strength than expected. Real Estate here seems to be slowly improving (for properties below $1M).
Well, it's good you have a positive outlook, and I don't wish to appear overly negative. I do however, wish to be data-driven.
Leading indicators are mixed. Some have improved, but are still awful. By that I mean they declined sharply, and then stopped declining, but are at levels indicating a much smaller economy (still lower GDP). Others not only haven't improved but continue to decline.
Web reference: http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/pressRelease_output.cfm?cid=1
We've not been here before, but at some point, the lagging indicator of employment becomes a leading indicator of consumer purchasing. This is already showing up as reduced (and continuing to decline) new manufacturing orders of capital goods.
All I know is the rate of failures of small businesses far exceeds the formation of new small businesses. That has not happened in several decades, including through the last three recessions.
The current Fed Beige book is just as cheerful as it can be: "Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve District Banks indicate that economic conditions remained weak or deteriorated further during the period from mid-April through May."
Web reference: http://www.federalreserve.gov/FOMC/Beigebook/2009/20090610/fullreport20090610.pdf
We'll see when the administration issues their economic report. They are currently delaying release of it, even though it was due at the beginning of this week.
You're right... we are still suffer from the Bush hangover. ;-)
Well, there are facts and then there is opinion.
On the fact side: the stimulus bill and the second half of TARP, as well as the submission of the budget, the cap-and-trade proposals, and the healthcare take-over, as well as the auto takeover and subsequent bankruptcies - are all the Dem Congress and Obama.
Also on the fact side, the promise of the stimulus that "if we don't do this, unemployment might rise to 9%, whereas if we do, we can keep it below 8%."
Also on the fact side, the deficit, both real and projected, have blown past Bush's eight years in a matter of six months of Obama's.
Still further on the fact side, withdrawals from investment funds and the market outweigh the total decline of the market. (A lack of confidence?)
Tax receipts have dropped by almost 20%.
On the opinion side - I'd say the Dems of Congress (who assumed control Jan, 2007, before the decline) and Obama own this decline and failure to stem the decline. I also assert their actions and pending actions are making it worse. But, those are just my opinions.
The polls seem to indicate a significant number agree, although it differs by issue.
Have some Tea!
To quote:
WASHINGTON -- The U.S. index of leading economic indicators rose 0.7% in June, the third straight monthly gain, the Conference Board said Monday, signaling that a recovery is likely in the second half of the year.
Over the past six months, the index has improved at a 4.1% annual rate, up sharply from a negative 6.2% rate in the prior six months. This is the fastest pace since the first quarter of 2006.
The trend is consistent with a slow recovery this autumn, according to Ken Goldstein, an economist at the Conference Board.
"The unqualified jump in the index holds out hope that the upturn is not far away," said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors.
Heh.
Cherry-picking. And, citing the same report which shows the leading indicators are decidely mixed.
The press really are shameless aren't they?
First they talk all the gloom and doom back when the economy was in pretty good shape (5% unemployment, growing GDP, etc.) Then they talk up the economy when GDP is declining, and will again this quarter (GDP), with unemployment probably hitting 10%. And they cite as evidence a report that says the leading indicators are mixed and find a stooge to say "unqualified jump."
Amazing. Maybe they should make a big sign saying "Mission Accomplished" and put it over the fronts of the closed factories.
I hope the conference board economist has it right: that the indicators are consistent with a slow recovery.
My personal take is that it is more likely early next year, and that only if the Congress and Administration continues to have trouble passing cap-and-trade and the healthcare takeover.
You should see my other blog rant against the Birthers. Much more entertaining. A few of them are convinced we'll be enacting Sharia law in this country. Obama is going to do that singlehandedly. Better stock up on some Burkhas. ;-)
So glad this post has a "Champagne toasting" photo below.
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