With nothing else to do this morning, I have created an Attendance Probability Meter that is displayed on the right-hand side of the blog. You can click on the image for a larger view. Please check it out and let me know your thoughts.
Do you agree with the current probability? I will keep it updated as we see events unfolding, particularly in Germany. Also, keep me informed of your probability thoughts.
Prost.
19 comments:
what are the dependencies? 1. yes / no Wiesen 2. curfew 3. number of people at the table 4. singing 5. mouth mask in transport / restaurant 6. vaccinated More?
Also Regulatory climate. Will Germany invoke travel restrictions for tourism? The USA Case load is dropping, so I think that is lower risk, than I thought a month ago.
The meter is simple, What is the probably off this trip occurring?
Many things affect that, but this is the view of whether a trip occurrs. Could be as planned, could beer no Fest, just looking at a trip.
Based on your 'simple' definition, I think your 55% is probably about right. Sort of reflects the 'who the hell knows' of the current situation. Trying to avoid a political statement on the situation, the seemingly over cautious statements of the CDC make the trip look pretty hopeless. I struggle with the idea of, if allowed to travel to Germany, would we be required to be wearing masks the entire time as they currently require for domestic flights. I have read more optimistic reports of the US reaching 'herd immunity' as early as April. So 55% is slightly more optimistic than the 50-50 'Who the hell knows'
I am the eternal optimist when bier is involved.
With vaccinations happening rapidly, I say it should bump up to 60%.
I'm not opposed, but The Fatherland seems to still be struggling with closing border crossings.
March 7 status.
Corona lockdown extended: The new rules at a glance
Stage 1 - March 1st: Schools and hairdressers opened.
Stage 2 - from March 8th:
a) Bookstores, flower shops and retail stores for daily needs are allowed to open. If the shop space is larger, more customers are allowed.
b) Body-close services such as massages should be allowed again. What exactly is meant can differ from country to country. The lessons in driving and flight schools should start again (partly with a daily test).
Stage 3 - from March 8th at the earliest:
a) Incidence under 50: Further openings in retail (1 customer per 10/20 sqm depending on sales area), museums, galleries, zoos, memorials, outdoor sports (contact-free) with a maximum of ten people
b) Incidence 50-100: appointment shopping (“Click & Meet”), museums etc. with appointment booking, individual outdoor sports with a maximum of five people from two households
Stage 4 - 14 days later / at the earliest from March 22nd:
a) Incidence under 50: outdoor restaurants, theaters, cinemas, concert and opera houses, sports (contact-free inside, contact sports outside)
b) Incidence 50-100: each with a daily quick test or self-test - outdoor catering (with appointment booking), theaters, cinemas, concert and opera houses, sports (contact-free inside, contact sports outside)
Stage 5 - 14 days later / from April 5th at the earliest:
a) Incidence under 50: outdoor leisure events (max. 50 participants), indoor contact sports
b) Incidence 50-100: retail (1 customer per 10/20 sqm depending on sales area), sport (contact-free inside, contact sport outside) - without test
CONCLUSION: by Mid-April we should know more .........
Cool. Is this Netherlands? Germany? EU?
Sounds like progress though, especially for us that will be vaccinated.
It’s Germany. But NL is about the same, although just today our curfew has been extended from March 31 to April 15. :(
Not so positive news: many major German festivals (including the one in August) have been canceled.
Maybe time for plan B?
That is not good news, but not completely a surprise. Any Plan B would also require the openning of travel restrictions. If that does not occur we are limited.
Henk would have a better handle on the situation, but I think that we are overly optimistic based on how things are going with the vaccine and progress here. Just saw a BBC report of new virus surges in Eastern Europe. I would be inclined to lower the probability to 40%
Yea, the US will probably go from worst to first for this, as the Vaccination rollout is ahead of schedule. Alaska just opened up to all residents. I am still lumped with the Tide Pods generation. At least with a Vaccination, we won't be paraiahs anymore.
Agreed, but to reiterate, travel restrictions are our hurdle. Can't really make flight reservations if we don't know if we can actually go. I plan to use mileage, which has no cancellation issues, but still don't have a good feeling for an itinerary.
Probability meter has been updated. Based upon discussions at the official Oktoberfest Board Meeting yesterday, I have lowered the probability of attending to 45%. There was some thought that the probability is "no chance in hell", but I am holding out hope. The next two months will tell.
A finer point, which we contemplated last year... what if there is travel, lots of beer and sausages available, but no official "fest"???
Excellent question Barley Man. We did discuss this option, and we are all in if travel permits even without the 'Fest. Challenge though is travel planning. When do we pull the trigger on flights? What is that itinerary like? Stay with München in the mix but just do day trips?
Plenty to ponder...
Get the damn book out and start looking for Beer Halls we have not yet been to. ;-) There has to be a few.
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